Wait and See on Trump’s ‘Pivot’ to Kyiv

The Trump administration’s recent agreement to resupply Kyiv with Patriot missile batteries and other weapons systems is a welcome development. It’s a shame it took so long, no doubt innocent lives would have been saved had America stepped up six months ago and offered Ukraine more robust support defending its airspace against attack. While a step in the right direction, we should wait and see before proclaiming a major pivot by Washington toward Kyiv. Trump’s erratic foreign policy style and his MAGA base, which bizarrely equates all things Ukraine with Joe Biden, leave open the possibility that Trump could still sell-out Ukraine Munich-style, leaving Russia emboldened, Ukraine shamefully betrayed and Europe less secure.

Support for European democracies against Soviet aggression, and, later, Vladimir Putin’s revanchist moves to reconstruct the Soviet Empire have been a guiding principle of US foreign policy since the opening acts of the Cold War. But when it comes to foreign policy, Trump has no north star, other than maintaining his image of a miraculous dealmaker and his attraction to strongmen like himself. With Trump photo ops are more important than substantive, consistent foreign policy achievements, which are often tediously built brick-by-brick behind the scenes. The administration simply doesn’t have the discipline or attention span for the traditional interagency policy formulation that has evolved to think through complex foreign policy issues and provide recommendations to the President. The foreign policy establishment is all so very deep state, and besides, why bother when Trump can merely wave a magic wand and “fix everything.” Remember Trump’s 2018 summit with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, the one where the two would have a hamburger and “make a deal” to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula? Seven years later Trump is still saying that he’ll “get the conflict solved.” More recently, when a journalist asked who approved a Pentagon pause on Patriots, GMLRS rockets, Hellfire missiles and other military aid to Ukraine, Trump replied “I don’t know. Why don’t you tell me?”, once again highlighting the administration’s chaotic approach to foreign and defense policy. Reportedly a major factor in Trump’s recent reversal on weapons shipments to Kyiv was Melania Trump, who reminded the President–after he told her that he had had a “wonderful conversation” with Putin–that Putin continues to bombard civilian population centers in Ukraine.

The resumption of weapons shipments to Ukraine probably has more to do with prodding Putin to the negotiating table than a sincere pivot by Washington to support Kyiv. In concert with the announcement Trump gave Russia a 50-day deadline to agree to a ceasefire or face additional sanctions. Russia acknowledged that it was ready to talk while signaling that it was unlikely to compromise on its maximalist war goals. Meanwhile, both Kyiv and Moscow continue to batter each other with major drone and missile strikes against city centers and infrastructure. Last night Russia launched one of its largest aerial strikes against Ukraine in months, targeting Kyiv and killing two people and wounding 15. Ukrainian drone attacks against Russia over the weekend caused major disruptions at several major Russian airports. According to Ukraine’s air force, so far in July Russia has launched close to 5,000 drones and 148 missiles into Ukraine. Both sides are working furiously to build-up their drone and counter-drone capabilities.

Where does all this leave us? Probably back where we started six months ago. It’s a shame that Trump and the Republicans couldn’t have taken off the hyper-partisan blinders and seamlessly continued Biden-era support for Ukraine without interruption. That’s what would have occurred in the long-gone pre-Trump era where politics stopped at the water’s edge. Trump’s victim blaming of Ukraine for the conflict and on-again off-again military aid no doubt gave comfort to Moscow. By many estimates Russia has suffered over a million casualties and Russia’s war economy is showing signs of severe strain. Yet Putin continues to double-down on the Special Operation, no doubt in large part because compromising now could put his regime at risk. If Putin does come to the table, he may talk a good talk, but he’ll assuredly be looking for a reprieve rather than a durable peace. Trump’s desire for a deal at any cost makes it very likely that he’ll be willing to cut a bad one. This would give him the headlines he craves, maybe get him closer to a Nobel Peace Prize, while giving Russia time to lick its wounds and start planning for further aggression down the road.

Shawn Howard is a Marine Corps Veteran who worked as a CIA Analyst for over twenty years. He is the founder and President of American Veterans in Defense of Democracy (AVDD).

AVDD stands with Ukraine in its fight for survival against Russian aggression.

www.avdd.org